UFC 244 Betting: Masvidal vs. Diaz

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Diaz lost due to his inability to continue from a cut (Doctor’s orders).

The next PPV is December 14th and you can read our thoughts about UFC 245 betting picks.

Read on to see the initial predictions for Masvidal vs Diaz:

UFC 244 may not feature an official title fight, but betting on UFC 244 is turning out to be one of the most compelling cards of the year.

The card is headlined by the BMF title fight between Nate Diaz and Jorge Masvidal.

The card’s co-main event features Kelvin Gastelum taking on Darren Till.

Despite Diaz’s false-positive prohibited substances test, the fight will (rightfully) continue as schedules.

UFC 244 Betting Picks at a Glance

Before we dive into the details of the main event and the co-main event, let’s give you what you really want to see. We have two picks for your UFC 244 betting.

  1. Nate Diaz def. Jorge Masvidal via UD.
  2. Darren Till def. Kelvin Gastelum via TKO Round 2.

Now, read on to see why we picked these two UFC 244 bets.

Main Event Breakdown: Diaz vs. Masvidal

The main event sure is an interesting one. The UFC 244 odds* on this fight have moved up and down quite a bit, but currently stand at:

  • Jorge Masvidal: – 170
  • Nate Diaz: +138
*UFC 244 odds are subject to change.

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If I ever had to agree with this betting line, I say it’d be now. This fight is so close to a pick ’em, but I do favor Masvidal due to the tear he has been on as of late.

Styles

The two men’s styles are similar. Both men have great striking, but I do favor Diaz on the ground.

However, I think that Masvidal has good enough takedown/submission defense that it shouldn’t be too much of a threat when the cage doors close.

I think we’ll see most of this fight take place on the feet, and I’ve gone back and forth on this in terms of who has an advantage.

In the boxing department, I give the edge to Diaz. He has a longer reach and has a crisp jab that can stabilize anyone. Also, his 1-2 is something that will surely help keep Masvidal at bay as well.

However, I don’t think anyone is going to argue that Masvidal is the much more dynamic striker between the two. He is much flashier and seems to throw more of an array that Diaz.

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Size

Size is where I have most of my concerns. Diaz is huge at 170, and he seems to be carrying a lot of strength at this weight.

I won’t say that the size is going to give Diaz an automatic win, but the strength department is something I think Diaz is underrated in.

Masvidal stands at 5-9, while Diaz is 6-0. Also with the two-inch reach advantage, I think Masvidal is going to have a harder time closing the distance.

Some may argue for Masvidal’s performance against Till, but he was also rocked in that fight, and Diaz’s boxing seems crisper than Till’s as well.

Main Event Betting Pick

Now for the million-dollar question, who walks away with their hand raised at UFC 244? Many experts are not sure who to bet on for this fight, as am I. Most of the time, I’ve been thinking that we see Masvidal get his hand raised.

However, as we get closer and closer to the fight, whispers of Diaz’s name have popped up in my head, and I think that is the right choice here.

Diaz has an unreal pace, is the bigger/stronger man, and, despite his expressions, is eager to get that final money fight against Conor McGregor.

Official Pick: Nate Diaz def. Jorge Masvidal via UD.

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Sign up at FanDuel Sportsbook and opt-in for a Risk-Free Bet. If your first bet loses, get refunded up to $500 in site credits. Register anywhere in the US, but you can only bet from IN, NJ, and PA. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-Gambler.

Co-Main Event Breakdown

In the UFC 244 co-main event, we have a middleweight showdown between Kelvin Gastelum and Darren Till.

When this fight was first announced, I thought it was a horrible fight for Till. Out of everyone at 185, you agree to take on one of the most dangerous boxers?

However, the more I think about it, I’m banking on seeing a new version of Till that we haven’t seen before. The weight cut to 170 for Till was absolutely brutal to watch, and the move to 185 was a great choice on his end.

Gastelum is a nightmare matchup for the old Till, but when I see the issues that he had with the newly crowned champ, Israel Adesanya, I think Till possesses some of those same qualities, such as unique movement and great angles.

The UFC 244 odds* for the fight are currently as follows:

  • Kelvin Gastelum: -230
  • Darren Till: +184
*UFC 244 odds are subject to change.

I’m surprised by these odds, as I think many people are siding with Gastelum on this one, so seeing the fight this close in terms of the odds came as unusual.

However, as with many fights, odds aren’t something I always tend to agree with. On paper, I think Gastelum is a big favorite, but I think Till is coming in fresh and ready to shock the world, which we’ll be getting into soon.

Styles

The two styles clash here. Till, mainly a counter-puncher who uses his footwork to dominate distance, is going up against a guy in Gastelum who likes to put forward pressure on and close distance with his precision boxing.

Both guys give each other issues on the feet, however, I don’t see the ground being much of a factor in this fight. There is one giant concern everyone has in this fight, which we’ll get into next.

Till’s Chin

There is no way around it, Till was brutally KO’d in his last fight, leading many to be concerned about his chin as of late.

We’ve seen where guys move up and seem to take a shot much better, but we’ve also seen guys move up and still be suspect to being hit. I’m not sure what will happen with Till here, but he’s had enough time off, and he is just 26, making me think he’ll be able to absorb more shots.

Gastelum hits like a freight train and can put anyone at 185 out cold with his punches, but I think we’ll see Till be able to eat a few more than expected this time around.

Distance

For either guy, this fight is either won or lost in the game of distance. If Till can keep the fight at his range, he can give Gastelum serious problems on the feet, and depending on how much power he is carrying around at his new weight class, potentially end this fight in one swift punch.

For Gastelum, he’ll be looking to close the distance and drop a hook on Till’s chin. The path to victory at UFC 244 for both men seems pretty clear-cut, and I think they realize that. With that in mind, we may very well get a cat-and-mouse game.

Co-Main Event Betting Pick

At the end of the day, both guys know what they need to do to win. Being a three-round fight, I think that favors Till, just because that means less time he has to worry about Gastelum closing the distance.

I know this may seem like a long shot for UFC 244 betting, but I think Till is ready to shock the world and start an incredible journey at 185. I think he uses distance control and his counterstrikes to end this fight, in vintage Till fashion.

Official Pick: Darren Till def. Kelvin Gastelum via TKO Round 2.